“Florida is where woke goes to die!” boomed Governor Ron DeSantis, as he celebrated his landslide re-election. But the message from these midterms is clear. America does not want another four years of President Donald J. Trump.

Of course, plenty of MAGA-championing conspiracy-nut candidates did get themselves elected. Drill down into the results, however, and in the key states, amongst key demographics, candidates closely associated with Trump were rejected. In Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — states where the GOP not only could have won, but need to win in 2024 — Trump’s election-denying playmates faced defeat. The Big Lie has given us the Big Loss. Whilst middle America is still open to the Republicans, they are not open to nihilism, crudity and conspiracy. 

The great radicalisation has given way to the great moderation

Naturally, the man himself has taken this with all the grace of Chris Christie tap dancing. “Ron DeSanctimonious is playing games!” Trump wailed, in a bitter, rambling press release on Thursday. Deep down, he must — surely, surely — know the score. It’s over. He’s a loser. SAD!

Cards on the table: I am not a Trumpet. The GOP, for me, should be the party of the late P J O’Rourke — who refused to endorse Trump in 2020 — and Ike Eisenhower and Ronald Reagan, not Donald Trump. I tend to think the last decade or so of American politics has been a terrible aberration. America, and the world, would have been much better off had Mitt Romney scraped a victory in 2012. 

I understand why the old school country club Republicans were sidelined. But their time — or, at least, the time for someone who can bring them back into the fold, rather than repeatedly suggest they are unpatriotic traitors — has come. A bit of intelligence, a bit of self-control — on both wings of both main parties, on both sides of the pond — wouldn’t hurt at all. 

The great radicalisation, which seemed to grip British and American politics over the last ten years, has given way to the great moderation. 

Voters are looking for political leaders who have coherent policies and are reasonable. The transition, from Jeremy Corbyn to Sir Keir Starmer in the Labour Party, and from Boris Elizabeth Johnson-Truss to Rishi Sunak in the Conservatives, demonstrate this. The rejection in America — both of Donald Trump and the Trumpets, and the extreme elements of the Democratic Party — also evidence this changing mood.

The race for the White House remains wide open

The term “special relationship” has always reeked to me of neediness: British Prime Ministers desperate for a pat on the head from the latest White House incumbent. Regardless of what the current President (whoever they might be) thinks, our relationship with America is our most important, bar none. It is far, far, far more important than our relationship with the European Union, irrespective of geography, free trade agreements (our trade arrangements with the US are just fine as they are) or anything else. It is a relationship that goes beyond mere numbers (though it is worth bearing in mind certain telling statistics, for example, that a million Brits work for American companies, and a million Americans work for British companies). It is a simple matter of our long term prosperity — and security. America is the engine of Western capitalism. It is the most powerful country in the world. It is, at the end of the day, our cousin. We should want America to do well. We need America to do well.

That means an America that isn’t in retreat. Whilst Trump promises to “Make America Great Again”, his bleak diagnosis — a country riven with corruption and neurosis — and even bleaker prescription — an explosive culture war — is not what any of us need unleashed by the simple reality of America’s power and reach onto the rest of Western world.

Perhaps I am growing wet in my old age (hell, I’ll be 35 next year). Perhaps I am moderating. But a Republican Party that moves on from Trump would be good news for us all.

Bluntly, Papa Don can’t win. Maybe he can kneecap DeSantis, and the various other challengers that will emerge over the coming months. Maybe he can whip his base into such a glint-eyed fervour that he can scrape his way to the Presidential nomination. When he collides with the undecided voters of middle America, he’ll lose. Again.

That would be for the best. 

Yet the Grand Old Party’s descent into unelectable madness would not be for the best. As the Democrats struggle with their own extremist elements, the race for the White House remains wide open. Change is required. If the Republicans want to win in 2024, they will have to Build the Will to dump Trump.