In the past few days, as an American President-elect has been scorned for picking a Cabinet of zealous loyalists, the wider world of America’s allies and enemies has resounded to turmoil, self-inflicted damage, and helplessness. It may be just weeks since Donald Trump won that election, but the foreign policy landscape is changing by the day. Witness the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, in the space of a week. Bottom line: there’s a huge challenge abroad for Trump 2.0, but also opportunity.

Consider Europe, with its pillars of supposed strength, Germany and France, hobbled by domestic upheaval that leaves Presidents Macron and Scholz, let alone their governments, not just humbled, but emasculated in political terms. Ponder Asia, where first Japan, now South Korea, face months of not knowing, in essence, who is in charge, and who can lead. Likewise, let’s register the huge setback Russia and Iran have suffered in Syria, their key proxy in that region. The incoming US administration has to confront the new order, and the emerging Russia-China axis, while looking decidedly alone.

Oh, and by the way, as Trump reminds us all, we are watching wars in Europe and the Middle East grind on, claiming lives by the day. Trump the candidate hyped numbers, speaking of thousands dying in Ukraine and Gaza every 24 hours, but his point was undeniable. “We have to put a stop to this,” he repeated at every rally. “Give me 24 hours, we must stop the killing.” Whatever we think of the man, we have to respect the goal of ending bloodshed.

So here’s a thought, based on years in Moscow, the Middle East, Washington DC, and a belief, voiced in these pages, that Donald Trump will not necessarily be an isolationist US President.

Perhaps Trump, whatever his many failings, will show what has become his calling card down the years: his self-proclaimed ability to bring players to the table, to hammer out face-to-face negotiation, to cut deals. Step up, Mr President, cut the bullshit, deliver what you’ve marketed successfully, first on Reality TV, then with the books, finally to the voting public : the art of the deal.

Given Trump’s insistence that Syria “is not our fight…do not get involved,” Ukraine looks like number one for him. “Both sides are bleeding towards a ceasefire” to quote one optimistic member of the Trump team. As the war endures its third winter, the numbers and the territory taken speak loudly. Vladimir Putin, with his numbing disregard for Russian lives, has the upper hand — the blood of his hundreds of thousands of casualties being no issue for him. On the other side Volodymyr Zelensky faces the ultimate crossroads — whether to survive as a democratic, nation-state, however diminished, or face the military meat-grinder of Putin’s murderous dictatorship, now aided and abetted by an alliance that embraces China, Iran, North Korea.

We’re told that Zelensky dispatched a top adviser to Washington to meet Trump’s choice for National Security adviser, a level-headed Congressman from Florida, Mike Waltz, and that peace plans were on the table, including the idea that both sides “freeze the conflict” as things stand on the ground, and negotiate from there. An upbeat note from Putin’s official Tass news agency suggested the starting-point would give Russia the territory it has taken, while rejecting any notion that Ukraine would be rewarded with membership of the NATO alliance.

“We understand that NATO membership is for the future, not the present,” that was the Zelensky line to the Trump team — an important concession that highlights Ukraine’s vulnerability. Concluded Trump himself after meeting Zelensky in Paris : “Ukraine would like to make a deal and stop the madness … there should be an immediate ceasefire.”

Whether Putin, so clearly on the front foot in this war, would listen has to be the question. Yet rising prices in Russia and falling economic activity threaten his war effort, and the arrival of much-needed reinforcements from North Korea reveals Putin’s desperate struggle to recruit at home. Then factor in the humiliation of seeing his Mideast ally Assad overthrown. “24 hours, that’s all I need, to make the Moscow call,” says Trump. However suspicious we may be of his intentions, the fact is Trump alone can make that call, and get Putin to pick up the phone, unlike Joe Biden, or indeed any other Western leader.

As for the Middle East, and Israel’s forever war, it is worth remembering that Trump’s first term did produce the so-called Abraham accords, with Gulf states such as Bahrain and UAE recognising Israel, doing business with Israel, even after Israel’s merciless onslaught on Gaza in response to the massacre of Israeli civilians by Hamas on October 7, 2023. Trump’s goal remains to bring the biggest player of all, Saudi Arabia, into that union. We may not like it, but his predilection for thugs gives him a natural conversation with the Saudi Crown Prince, Mohammed Bin Salman.

… Donald Trump is not going to play second fiddle to Xi Jinping, or Vladimir Putin, or Bibi Netanyahu

And on this front, once again, we hear Trump’s tough talk. What advice would he give Israel’s warrior Prime Minister Bibi Netanyahu ? “Get it done, get it over with, and get it over fast,” that has been Trump’s mantra. “I’m not sure I’m loving the way they’re doing it, they are losing the PR war, it’s a PR disaster.” You can see such remarks as superficial, yes, but the Trump team reports no love lost between him and Netanyahu — and they predict that President Trump will stand up to the Israeli. Again, that is a conversation no other leader can have. It is a conversation, as noted in these pages, that Joe Biden ducked.

So maybe, just maybe, amid all the fears of Trump the elected autocrat, the leader who could deport tens of thousands of immigrants, the Cold warrior who could spark a trade battle with China, there’s reason to suspend judgement on the man-child Donald, and keep an open mind on his return to power.  

Because instinct, and some personal experience of the man, suggests that Donald Trump is not going to play second fiddle to Xi Jinping, or Vladimir Putin, or Bibi Netanyahu. He’s too much of a narcissist for that. His face to the world, how he looks, remains all important to him. There lies just the possibility of a President who makes calls that only he can make — and challenges rivals cum enemies to make peace.

Nature abhors a vacuum, so they say. The vacuum right now in the wider world is writ large. Over to you, Mr President. The stage you love so much is yours. In your own parlance, time to show us what you’ve got.