By the right, long march

Mao Zedong commented that a journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. A reminder that the arduous begins with something simple. If Reform is to truly advance then it faces two long marches, into power and through the institutions. Whatever the poll bounces, risk of failure is real and substantial.

The 2024 election result and the post-election polling demonstrates two issues. First, a voting bloc of 45-50 per cent that would have delivered a handsome parliamentary majority was and is there for the taking. A bloc that the Conservatives did not so much fritter away but deliberately tossed into a bin fire. Second, in the race of who speaks for them, Reform has secured a consistent polling lead over the Conservatives.

Reform’s bonus has been how spluttering Labour’s return to power has been. It governs as Micawber for a select band of supporting groups (and Mauritius) and Scrooge to the rest of us. Its combination of Callaghan economics; a dud Cabinet; an everyone else first foreign policy; confusion on identity issues; and a Prime Minister buffeted by, not shaping events.

With the national insurance employer contribution changes undermining economic growth and public sector spending plans, the next Spring Statement with another dose of tax rises should create the opportunity for polling distance between Reform and Labour. Other European Right-wing parties have found it difficult to get beyond 20-25 per cent, so Farage needs to prove it can break beyond that cul-de-sac.

So, Reform’s long march to power (or share of power) has begun with strides not steps. However, if Reform genuinely wants to achieve the realignment in the twenty-first century that Labour achieved over the Liberals in the twentieth century it must not only succeed in its march to power but its march through the institutions.

Matthew Goodwin has provided a detailed analysis of the potential at Westminster elections but the trek to power will begin with the local elections in England. Sure, starting with only a few handfuls of Council seats the only way is up. However, an explosion in membership comes with its own set of problems.

With limited time how do you turn the members into activists? How do you recruit and prepare your slate of candidates? How do you manage the inevitable clashes and feuds that develop from selection processes? How do you establish effective new council groups? The dull; the mundane; the parochial; and the personality clashes with a dollop of ego expansion that comes with a first election can create severe harm to a nascent party.

Reform has begun to recruit its campaign managers’ network, but the cancellation of some English council elections may have delayed rich pickings. Where they are being held (on 1 May) success in lower turnout elections cannot be taken for granted. Following a recent by-election in North England a local Labour figure privately remarked “We won because we worked it hard with dozens of activists. Reform took victory for granted and failed.” Perhaps, Reform appeals more amongst the less likely to vote who will not turn up.

There would be a cost of failure, not least sections of the media instilling a narrative that Reform is stalling. Badenoch is desperate to show the Tory party still holds the mantle of the UK’s party of the right and to stave off a leadership challenge.  These elections will help establish which party has momentum.

Reform’s real opportunity is in the 2026 elections to the Scottish Parliament, Welsh Seneddand English councils. In Scotland, Holyrood polling has the Tories and Reform on average neck and neck. Coming third is perfectly possible as, even, is coming second given that Labour support is slipping rapidly. In Wales, Reform has a lead over the Conservatives outside of the margin of error and finds itself vying with Labour and Plaid Cymru for largest party. The bonus is the Senedd constituencies are not especially different from the Westminster ones, making success in them a transferable springboard for any future national election.

The dream result next May would be for Reform to become the official opposition in Scotland and the largest party in Wales along with hundreds of English council seats. Such an eventuality would look hopeless for the Conservatives. Yet how Reform’s new representatives go on to perform is central to the party’s credibility thereafter.

With so much in play, Reform is right to put clear water between itself and any talk of pacts. Reform success in 2026 would finish Badenoch (and hobble her successor who would struggle to turn party fortunes around). The value of forming a pact is an assessment to be much closer to general election.

However, all this potential growth leaves Reform with a massive personnel problem. It needs dozens if not hundreds of candidates who are good enough not only to be MPs but fill a cabinet in full or part.

What is Reform’s talent pool? The model PPC would look like the Tory Red Wallers — a profile with a life story with which Labour voters can identify. In terms of broader talent, there are plenty of frustrated Tory right wing PPC wannabes that CCHQ has done much to hamper. However, this carries the risk of Reform looking too much like the Conservatives. Perhaps even Nigel Farage’s friend Ian Paisley Jnr could find himself a mainland constituency.

In terms of messaging, Reform’s adoption of the Blue Labour mantra of “Faith, Community and Country” is a political sweet spot. In terms of an interim target for the national election, it should pursue a 35 per cent strategy (in a 3.5 to 4 way split of varying degrees this should deliver a majority). Given the extent of the change they seek, it needs a two-term strategy. Were Reform to win, then govern well enough to win again, it would ensure the Conservatives went the way of the Liberal Party.

But winning a general election would not be an end in itself, for then Reform has to surmount the challenges of the UK’s bureaucratic system or risk becoming trapped in Michael Lind’s “New Class War” loop of metropolitan overreach and populist failure. In 1924, Ramsay MacDonald’s first minority term was a demonstration of a movement not prepared for governance, as was Trump’s first term.

There are lessons for Trump’s second term. A network of organisations trained the personnel to fill both the administration and the thousands of presidential appointees. Trump had a tiny bench in 2016 but now can appoint believers across the system.

There is not currently the ecosystem for Reform to develop such a trained talent pool. Butthat does not mean it cannot be created. Civic Future is trying to monopolise this space but is too small and London-centric to produce the numbers necessary. Perhaps Great British PAC is an attempt to fill this space?

Blair proved that the system can be shifted if you arrive with a plan

On top of this is a shock and awe approach to domestic and foreign policy: is that possible in the UK system? Trump 2.0 wants to embed deep and momentous change as quickly as possible. The aim is to establish it as the new norm with the hope that a susbsequent Vance Presidency makes the previous norm a distant memory. A parliamentary system by its nature is a slower beast. There are no presidential powers to be exercised or stretched.

Yet Blair proved that the system can be shifted if you arrive with a plan — the consequences of which we live with in 2025. Equally, Labour in 1945 and the Conservatives in 1979 both managed to deliver fundamental shifts in direction. However, unlike Attlee, Thatcher and Blair, Reform will face a hostile government and policy complex. Simply putting inexperienced first time Reform ministers and special advisers atop of the present machine would not work.

Within the parliamentary system Reform would need to arrive with not only a manifesto but a King’s Speech ready to go with a parliamentary session agenda, pre-prepared draft legislation (including a great reform bill for government and bureaucracy) and a cadre of talent ready to be ministers and advisers. A useful model for systemic public spending changes can be lifted from Ireland, An Bord Snip Nua and updated with the data analytics of DOGE.

Just as there is no ecosystem for personnel there is presently no policy ecosystem for Reform.It barely has a policy unit itself. Tory decline may encourage some think tanks to reorientate, but would that just involve projecting their old offer onto Reform? Again, an infrastructure could be created but would need to start now.

How seriously Reform navigates the peaks and crevasses on its long march are a test for how prepared it will be in using power if it gets it. If, instead, it works off the back of a fag packet then Rupert Lowe’s one shot will not even hit a barn door. But if Reform is smart it could reshape the UK for a generation at least.