Does Nigel Farage have the Mandate of Heaven?

On the first night of my trip to witness President Trump’s second coronation in Washington DC, Nigel Farage told a room of drunk British delegates that he could become Prime Minister before 2029. The expected cheers ensued. We might dismiss talk of Reform winning outright in 2029 as the hype necessarily pedalled by political parties of every stripe. As a critical friend of Reform, I hope they can — provided their policies are sufficiently strong. But now, Reform has pulled ahead of the Tories in every major poll. On Monday, they led a point ahead of Labour in the Sky News / YouGov poll. Those insisting on a pact with the Conservatives sound more interested in saving the Tories’ skin than wanting Reform to win. (And I can think of few Conservative MPs that would be beneficial to Reform as defectors.) Can Reform emerge victorious, without making compromises?

A strangely non-combative interview on This Morning conferred a feeling of inevitability onto Farage. A bizarre clip of Nigel being ambushed by a Chinese lion on Lunar New Year overshadowed the exchange; but more surreal was how normal the ensuing discussion was. Ben Shephard and Cat Deeley addressed Farage like he was part of the political furniture. They laughed about his time in the Australian jungle, and spoke to him like Blair was sat there instead. Farage was allowed to talk at length about immigration, stating that most of the country agrees with him. I’m sure he had braced himself for the boring accusations of “Racist!”, levelled back when he proposed we leave the EU, where migrants resemble the inside of a Greggs sausage roll. But those were conspicuously absent. When a loaded question about Tommy Robinson or Elon Musk was gently asked, Farage dismissed them without getting defensive. There was a feeling that he was in command, rather than under fire. Is voting Reform now just… normal?

Labour have noticed. Reform came second in 98 seats last election; 89 of which Labour won. Now, of the 76 seats Reform is projected to win, 60 are Labour. Starmer’s subterranean approval ratings must make Downing Street as macabre as a mausoleum these days. Labour are now building a “secret anti-Reform database” to push back against the “populist right”. (Have they tried not calling half the country racist?) The Home Office’s communist attack-dog, HOPE Not Hate also sent an email to their supporters, warning support for the teal insurgents is “surging”. If they’re scared, Reform should take it as a sign that their “ruthless campaign machine” is working, and they should redouble their efforts.

Brutus-in-waiting Wes Streeting went on the attack, telling the socialist Fabian Society that Farage has a “miserablist, declinist” vision of Britain. (Perhaps Nigel looked out his window, or walked down his dilapidated local high-street, to come to that conclusion?) This is the same Wes Streeting who wrote an “Islamophobia” definition, which criminalises conversations about Pakistani rape gangs; who only stopped advocating we chemically sterilise gender-confused children when the final Cass Review made it too politically toxic; and whose party have put Britain on the brink of insolvency by chasing its millionaires away. Not quite an ambassador for good cheer.

Much like Trump, it appears time has endeared Farage to the voting public. Chalk that up to things changing fast in politics. Nobody could have predicted that a tone-deaf Telegraph column by Fraser Nelson would set in motion the Pakistani rape gang scandal gaining global attention. Labour’s own voters are now accusing Starmer of a cover-up for blocking the national inquiry that a majority of the public support. While Starmer accused those concerned of jumping aboard a “far right bandwagon”, Rupert Lowe called for the families of the rapists — who hid their heinous crimes, blamed the girls for being Kafir, and attacked victims at court — to be deported alongside the perpetrators, in Parliament. The same again, when Axel Rudakubana’s guilty plea revealed the Southport murderer had been repeatedly referred to Prevent. Farage was vindicated in his accusation that the truth was being withheld from the public, and that the Labour government were engaging in yet another cover-up. 

After the election, Farage made statements which caused consternation among Reform supporters. He ruled out mass deportations — despite promising them on election day, and their popularity with Reform members. Farage also reiterated a need to not alienate political Islam, or “we will lose.” Hence why, the last time I wrote about Reform for The Critic, I asked what winning would look like. This caused quite the accidental brouhaha, with Richard Tice providing an unsolicited objection to my well-intended criticisms, and calling the article “garbage” twice. (A tactic which didn’t work for Joe Biden during the 2024 election.) 

I have voted for Reform twice — including for Tice in the Old Bexley and Sidcup 2021 by-election. He’ll make an exceptional Chancellor, should Reform win in 2029. My essay was not intended to be an insult, but rather a third-rail between Reform and their jittery base. I understand their strategy: carrying the ming-vase over the finish line to pick up new voters. But in the process, I was warning that Reform should not estrange local organisers and leafletters who might waste energy wandering down noxious political cul-de-sacs if they sense the party losing its anti-establishment bonafides. I am pleased to say that this was understood by other parts of Reform, who were keen to relay that my concerns were heard.

This did, however, inspire a baseless hitpiece on Spiked, in which author Inaya Folarin Iman wrote,

Reform leader Nigel Farage has been keen to draw a line between his party’s populist politics and those of the identitarian right. His recent efforts to rebuff the racial identitarians have been criticised, unsurprisingly, by those who think the party should obsess over ‘demographic change’ and stop saying mean things about Tommy Robinson. Apparently, Farage is betraying his anti-establishment credentials. The polls would suggest Farage was right to ignore these critics. Reform is polling at record highs.

It is telling that Iman felt the need to resort to the language of the enemy to dismiss my points — before privating, then deleting, her X account. For context: Iman works for Civic Future, whose Chief Executive, Munira Mirza was Director of the No 10 Policy Unit under Boris Johnson. Her husband is the mysterious Conservative party fixer Dougie Smith, whose strong influence on candidate selection produced their remaining cadre of wets left after the election. Both shepherded Kemi Badenoch through ministerial roles, the career-making Sewell Report, and both leadership elections. If Reform is being encouraged by its enemies to estrange its friends, it would be wise to do the opposite. Having their approval would mean following a losing formula.

For my part, I am neither “far right”, nor a “white identitarian”. (It would make my friendship with Ayaan Hirsi Ali rather strange.) Nor have I encouraged Reform to run Robinson as a candidate. I merely predicted that Robinson would drive an intractable wedge between Reform and its base, and encouraged the issue to be resolved before the inevitable happened. Given the avoidable challenge Elon Musk made to Farage’s leadership over this issue, I dare say I was right.

But this new interview from Farage, and the indomitable resilience of breakout star Rupert Lowe, have given new cause for optimism. Farage successfully spun Musk’s withdrawal of support as him standing on principle against the world’s richest man. Meanwhile, Lowe runs ahead of the pack, with stronger rhetoric and policies than the party itself. Whereas Reform promises “Net Zero” immigration — a one-in, one-out policy of replacing one’s own people — Lowe advocates a two-year immigration moratorium, and mass deportations of every last illegal immigrant in Britain. When he’s called “far right,” a “bigot,” or “racist”, Lowe doesn’t produce a montage of Reform’s non-white candidates: he simply says “so be it,” and reasserts his popular, sensible policies. Given Lowe’s rising popularity, Reform would do well to adopt Lowe’s policies and posture across the board.

We must be unapologetically patriotic – put the British people above ALL else, and be proud of doing so.

We must do what needs to be done – on immigration, crime, deportations and more.

We must restore Britain, and what we’ve lost.

My speech in Essex… pic.twitter.com/9xakom8jTc

— Rupert Lowe MP (@RupertLowe10) February 1, 2025

There are signs of Farage doing just that. After promises of mass deportations delivered Donald Trump the popular vote, and a plurality of Hispanic support, Farage has said, “We may be a different country, but the principle is exactly the same.” This direct video was released at the same time that Tom Homan’s ICE are arresting 1,200 foreign criminals a day. Now that his own MPs and President Trump have ensured such policies are well within the Overton Window, Farage might feel more comfortable discussing them the next time he sits on the This Morning sofa. 

To refrain from sycophancy, I’ll end with another piece of constructive criticism. What Reform now lacks can be found not in its counterparts in the States, but on the European continent. National Rally’s combination of matriarch Marine Le Pen and Zoomer avatar Jordan Bardella has won young French men and women over with a parity not seen in other right-wing movements. Given the Brexit Party had no shortage of credible female MEPs, running one in the next available by-election, campaigning on immigration as a women’s safety issue, would give Reform yet another unique selling point. 

Additionally, amplifying young influencers with existing audiences (rather than unsuccessfully astroturfing in-house talent) will ensure the growing Zoomer vote feel represented. There is a vibrant new-right establishing itself in Westminster, and Reform would be wise to trust in that talent. That requires taking on an additional aesthetic to the “Boys down the boozer” vibe which had won Farage his existing older fans. The great success of MAGA in 2024 was making patriotism attractive, popular, and trendy. If your hideous enemies are seething at photos of your well-dressed supporters, calling them the “Cruel Kids Table”, then that’s what winning looks like.