On the eve of the one-year mark since the horrific terror attacks on Israel by Hamas, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu claimed his country was fighting a war “for our existence — a ‘Revival War.’”

In his view, that war is being fought on seven fronts: against Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen, what Netanyahu called “terrorists” in the West Bank, Shia militias in Iraq and Syria, and, he finally declared, “we are fighting against Iran.”

Without question, the terrorist attacks of October 7, 2023 were a vicious and painful event and it is entirely appropriate for the Israeli government to respond and bring the perpetrators to justice. But it is where that multi-front war may go next that should alarm every friend of Israel.

Former Israeli prime minister Naftali Bennett argues that Iran is the head of a great octopus in the region, and that it doesn’t make sense to only fight the tentacles. Israel must go after the head, Bennett said in a recent interview with Jordan Peterson, adding, “I’ll say straight up at this point, we need to topple the Iranian regime. That’s what we need to do. And it will fall.”

It may be emotionally satisfying to argue for going after the “head of the octopus” — but only if there is a viable military path to that objective. Presently, there is only a path to an expanded and perpetual war.

The war in Gaza, now over a year old, drags on and doesn’t appear any closer to being won than when it began. Israel just launched a new offensive in northern Gaza because Hamas fighters have returned after allegedly being defeated there last year; the massive number of civilian casualties Israel inflicts on the Palestinians and the wholesale destruction of their cities guarantees Israel will create more enemies than it ever kills.

Israel has continued bombing Houthi sites in Yemen. Although the airstrikes cause great damage, the Houthis have shown their ability to continue fighting even after a decade of war against Saudi Arabia and now the U.S. Navy in the Red Sea. There is no evidence Israel will fare any better.

The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) has been increasing its military operations in the occupied West Bank. There are five million Palestinians living there. It is virtually impossible for the IDF to use military force to “defeat” their opponent (which isn’t clearly defined in any case).

The newest front in this war is the most difficult so far: trying to eliminate Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. From a military perspective, the task set by the Israeli government is monumental. According to ABC News, the IDF has “ordered the residents of around 50 Lebanese villages to evacuate north of the Awali River, around 37 miles from Israel’s border.”

Lebanon is about 75 miles wide. For the IDF to go that wide and deep into Lebanon, militarily defeating all Hezbollah fighters, would likely take the IDF more than a year, possibly longer. But they may not have sufficient striking and sustaining power to seize that much territory in any timeframe.

Hezbollah has spent nearly two decades building elaborate tunnel systems throughout Lebanon, and those tunnels are stocked with enormous supplies of warfighting and sustaining materials. Their fighters are far more experienced and trained than the Hamas fighters in Gaza, and the terrain favors defense. Israel suffered heavy casualties in their 2006 war in Lebanon, a conflict that only lasted 34 days. It is unlikely Israel could sustain a long war in Lebanon while simultaneously fighting in Gaza, the West Bank, and Yemen.

And, of course, if Iran is added into the mix, the question becomes not whether Israel could win but whether they could avoid losing. Iran is a medium-sized regional power that has been balanced by other regional players and doesn’t have the power to dominate them. But it does have the capacity to defend itself from a major Israeli attack.

Iran has a significant stockpile of missiles and rockets, many of which are modern and lethal. They have moderate air defense capacity, which would limit the effects of an Israeli missile attack. Israel has impressive air defence capacities, but they are far from foolproof. Iran could potentially overwhelm Israeli air defence with massive numbers of missiles and drones, leaving Israel vulnerable to subsequent attacks.

There is no viable military path for Israel to win this war and a real chance they lose it

Most crucially, however, missiles alone have never won a war and likely never will. Meaning even if Israel set back Iran’s nuclear program, they couldn’t destroy it and they couldn’t defeat Iran. Attacking Iran would likely only start a major war that would see the two sides perpetually land blows against the other but never land a knockout punch.

Given the other six fronts of the war, Israel could be bled to death over time, both in terms of manpower and economic might. There is no viable military path for Israel to win this war and a real chance they lose it. The emotions of October 7 should not lead Israel to choose a course that cannot succeed. A diplomatic way forward holds the best chance of producing a positive outcome for Israel.