Three decades of broken promises on immigration
Time and time again, Labour and the Conservatives have failed to deliver on their pledges
I recently wrote for The Critic on why the broken promises of our political elite on the issues of migration and asylum fuelled public anger and violence on our streets. Incredibly many commentators denied that either party had failed to deliver on their promises at all. As a result I decided to read through all these manifestos and quote the broken promises on immigration, borders and asylum contained within. Advance warning: this is long, repetitive and liable to make you angry. Blame the politicians for that.
Labour 2005 manifestoWe will establish a points system for those seeking to migrate here. More skills mean more points and more chance of being allowed to come here.
Yes you read that right. A points based system for skills was promised to the people 20 years ago.
We will ensure that only skilled workers are allowed to settle long-term in the UK, with English language tests for everyone who wants to stay permanently and an end to chain migration.
Yes, you read that right too. No unskilled immigration was promised 20 years ago also, as well as no chained (family and extended family) migration. Yet according to the Annual Population Survey in 2022, 3.5m foreign born people stated that they originally moved to the country mainly to join a family member. This means more than a third of all the foreign-born in the UK are family unification migrants.
We will remove more failed applicants by fingerprinting every visa applicant and prosecuting those who deliberately destroy their documents …
How many people do you think have been prosecuted for destroying their documents since 2005? Indeed destruction of documents is the precise reason we are now told that almost zero of the people arriving on these shores on the boats can be sent home (because we can’t prove where home is).
In 2021 Home Office data reported that only 317 of 16,510 people making the crossing had passports when picked up by Border Force having been advised by smugglers and NGO’s to shred their documents first to avoid deportation.
… and we will take action against those countries that refuse to cooperate.
Anyone want to guess how many countries the UK has started “action against” in this regard? Perhaps we could start now with France who we know are escorting the boats into UK waters?
By the end of 2005, our aim is for removals of failed asylum seekers to exceed new unfounded claims.
Meanwhile this is the reality on the ground:
Our out-of-control immigration system encourages people smugglers and penalises genuine refugees…This (Labour) Government has lost effective control of our borders. More than 150,000 people (net) come to Britain every year, a population the size of Peterborough. Labour see “no obvious upper limit to legal immigration”.
Oh the halcyon days of just 150,000 per year net. And just a population the size of Peterborough. For comparison purposes, over 2.3 million people have entered the UK in the past two years alone. The equivalent of 5 Manchester’s.
Britain has reached a turning-point. That is why a Conservative Government will bring immigration back under control.
Does this look like control to you?
We will introduce a points-based system for work permits similar to the one used in Australia. This will give priority to people with the skills Britain needs.
Yes, you read that right. Both parties promised a points based system and no unskilled migration 20 years ago.
Our asylum system is in chaos. Instead of offering a safe haven to those most in need, the current system encourages illegality. Desperate individuals are forced into the hands of people smugglers and when they reach Britain they are open to continuing exploitation in the underground economy…Only two out of every ten asylum seekers are found to have a genuine claim.
On asylum, a Conservative Government will not allow outdated and inflexible rules to prevent us shaping a system which is more humane, more likely to improve community relations and better managed. So we will take back powers from Brussels to ensure national control of asylum policy, withdraw from the 1951 Geneva Convention, and work for modernised international agreements on migration.
Indeed it was 20 years ago when we were first promised that we would leave the Geneva Convention and modernise international agreements. Today we are told that leaving international agreements is both impossible and “far right”.
Our objective is a system where we take a fixed number of refugees from the UNHCR rather than simply accepting those who are smuggled to our shores. Asylum seekers’ applications will be processed outside Britain.
Yes you read that right as well. It was 20 years ago when we were first promised offshore processing and a cap on asylum seekers.
We will set an overall annual limit on the numbers coming to Britain, including a fixed quota for the number of asylum seekers we accept. Parliament will set, and review, that number every year.
Yes, you read that correctly too. Twenty years ago we were promised a legally binding quota for legal (and illegal) immigration.
There should be popular consent for further demographic change. And the best way to secure continuing support for future migration is by showing that government has control of our borders.
A promise of popular consent for further demographic change, a recognition that legal immigration was far too high and a promise to bring it way down combined with a promise to stop all illegal immigration and cap all immigration. All were promised 20 years ago. Despite the fact that ever since polling has demonstrated public demand for all of these policies, instead what we have experienced is the exact opposite.
We understand people’s concerns about immigration — about whether it will undermine their wages or job prospects, or put pressure on public services or housing.
15 years ago both parties admitted that there was a link between immigration, wages and pressure on public services/housing. Now we are told that anyone who claims such things (like Nigel Farage) are “far right”.
We will use our new Australian style points-based system to ensure that as growth returns we see rising employment and wages, not rising immigration, and requiring newcomers to earn citizenship and the entitlements it brings.
Meanwhile, in the real world the opposite happened. Rising immigration:
Flatlining real wages:
We are committed to an immigration system that promotes and protects British values.
Just six years after this manifesto was published, Trevor Phillips, the former chairman of the Equality and Human Rights Commission under the Blair Government, wrote a report based on detailed polling of the British Moslem community. He wrote that Britain faced a threat of “the establishment of a nation within our nation.” This, he added, would require “the abandonment of the milk-and-water multiculturalism still so beloved of many, and the adoption of a far more muscular approach to integration.”
The reason Phillips wrote this in 2016 is precisely because our political elite — both Labour and Tory — failed to deliver their promise of an immigration system that promotes and protects British values.
We will gradually tighten the criteria in line with the needs of the British economy and the values of British citizenship, and step up our action against illegal immigration. There will be no unskilled migration from outside the EU.
Yet again a manifesto promise of “no unskilled migration from outside the EU”. Not a little. Not some. None.
Tory 2010 manifestoImmigration today is too high and needs to be reduced. We do not need to attract people to do jobs that could be carried out by British citizens, given the right training and support. So we will take steps to take net migration back to the levels of the 1990s – tens of thousands a year, not hundreds of thousands.
2010. The first time the British people were promised net migration in the tens of thousands a year in an election manifesto. At most, that would have meant net migration in the last 14 years of less than 1.4 million people. Instead over 10.2 million migrants have reached our shores since then. 2.3 million (under a Tory Government) in the past two years alone.
In addition, we will promote integration into British society, as we believe that everyone coming to this country must be ready to embrace our core values and become a part of their local community.
It is interesting that in 2010 both the Tory and Labour parties promised “muscular integration” which we of course now know did not happen. But more than that it is noteworthy that anyone calling for such integration now (for example Professor of Politics Matthew Goodwin) is labelled as far right and racist with calls for him to be shut out of the debate.
On student visas we will require that students must usually leave the country and reapply if they want to switch to another course or apply for a work permit.
Meanwhile, in the real world, the ONS most recent data shows that 19 per cent (or 101,000 people) of the 2022 student visa cohort had moved from being on student visas to “skilled worker” visas. And no. None of them had to return home first to do so either.
Britain has seen historically high levels of immigration in recent years, including low-skilled migration, which has given rise to public anxiety about its effects on wages, on our public services, and on our shared way of life.
Even as late as 2015 it was possible for a Labour manifesto to note the link between immigration, wages and public services without being “far right”.
Despite the Conservatives’ promise to reduce net migration to tens of thousands, it is now higher than it was when David Cameron entered Downing Street. Broken promises erode trust.
In 2015 the Labour party admitted that broken promises by politicians on the subject of immigration erodes trust. Today, less than a decade later, Labour Prime Minister Keir Starmer openly states that broken promises regarding immigration have nothing to do with public anger or the anti-immigration protests let alone the violence that has ensued.
Low-skilled migration has been too high and needs to come down. We need much stronger action to stop illegal immigration…Labour’s plan starts with stronger borders. We will introduce stronger controls to prevent those who have committed serious crimes coming to Britain, and to deport those who commit crimes while they are here.
We will introduce full exit checks, so that we can count people in and out of the country. Short-term student visitor visas have dramatically increased, so we will tighten the system to prevent abuse.
As you can see by 2015 both major parties had promised to control student visas. Meanwhile in the real world this is what actually happened:
And we will keep the cap on workers from outside the EU.
And this is what actually happened to that:
(We will) Keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands, not the hundreds of thousands
When immigration is out of control, it puts pressure on schools, hospitals and transport; and it can cause social pressures if communities find it hard to integrate.
Even as late as 2015 it was possible for a Tory manifesto to not only state the link between immigration, wages and public services but also agree that it is impossible to ensure integration of new immigrants when the numbers coming in are too large. Now such arguments are dismissed as “far right” and the people proposing them as so far beyond the pale that they should be cancelled.
We will introduce a new residency requirement for social housing, so that EU migrants cannot even be considered for a council house unless they have been living in an area for at least four years.
In the real world, most people who immigrate to the UK can define themselves as “habitually resident”. And all people who are “habitually resident” can claim for housing within 3 months of arrival in the UK. And the current Labour Government has wasted no time in scrapping tentative plans to limit social housing applications to those resident in an area for at least 10 years.
We have introduced a ‘deport first, appeal later’ rule for foreign national offenders. We will now remove even more illegal immigrants by extending this rule to all immigration appeals and judicial reviews, including where a so-called right to family life is involved, apart from asylum claims.
In 2015 both the Labour and Tory parties promised to deport foreign criminals. In reality, last year the UK deported less than 4,000 foreign criminals whilst nearly 12,000 further foreign criminals — who are legally liable to deportation — have instead been released into the community in the UK after completing their sentence.
We will continue to cut immigration from outside the EU … we have already capped the level of skilled economic migration from outside the EU. We will maintain our cap at 20,700 during the next Parliament
To put that 20,700 cap into perspective, the figure for immigration from outside the EU last year was 1,031,000 according to ONS estimates:
This will ensure that we only grant visas to those who have the skills we really need in our economy …
As you have seen. For nearly three decades both the Labour and Tory parties have promised in their manifestos that they would only allow high paid skilled workers into the UK. So, I decided to look at the skilled worker list outlining the jobs a visa applicant could apply for and the minimum required wage to see if they have been keeping their promise.
Let’s start with the claim that applicants would need to earn a high wage. In December 2023 I looked into this here. At the time the immigration rules stated:
You’ll usually need to be paid at least £26,200 per year or £10.75 per hour, whichever is higher. If the ‘going rate’ for your job is higher than both of these, you’ll usually need to be paid at least the going rate. If you do not meet the usual salary requirements, and you do not work in healthcare or education, you might still be eligible if your salary will be at least £20,960 per year and at least £10.75 per hour.
Is £10.75 an hour a high wage? Well for reference, the national minimum wage was £10.42 an hour rising to £11.44 an hour in April 2024. In short, £10.75 an hour sounds a lot closer to the minimum wage than to a high wage to me. And you may have noted that the Immigration rules state that £10.75 an hour is the “usual” requirement. I decided to look at the skilled worker list outlining the jobs a visa applicant could apply for and the minimum required wage to see what “usual” meant.
A cursory glance at the list of skills/jobs an immigrant could apply for that counts as high skilled and their hourly rates/annual salary requirements demonstrates there are dozens and dozens of jobs where the wage requirement is below the generally set £10.75 an hour minimum requirement. Many below £8 an hour. Indeed you are currently able to apply for a skilled worker visa if your skill is “Floral Assistant”, “Floral Designer” or even “Flower Arranger” and your earnings exceed just £7.28 per hour. To put that in perspective, that’s a third lower than the minimum wage.
Does that sound like only granting visas to “those who have the skills we really need in our economy” to you?
We will reform the student visa system with new measures to tackle abuse and reduce the numbers of students overstaying once their visas expire …
Meanwhile in the real world we still don’t actually know how many students return home after studying here. In the words of the Office for National Statistics (ONS): “There are no official figures that show how many students do not emigrate and remain in the UK after their studies.”
We will tackle people trafficking and exploitation.
In the real world:
We will reduce and control immigration…but with annual net migration standing at 273,000, immigration to Britain is still too high. It is our objective to reduce immigration to sustainable levels, by which we mean annual net migration in the tens of thousands, rather than the hundreds of thousands we have seen over the last two decades.
As recently as 2017 the Tory party was still promising annual net migration in the tens of thousands rather than hundreds of thousand seen over the last two decades. In the real world, the Tory party delivered nearly 2.3 million gross immigration in the past two years alone. Since 1997 and the beginning of the mass immigration experiment, over 15 million immigrants have entered the UK. That is equivalent to over 25% of the total 1997 UK population.
We will increase the earnings thresholds for people wishing to sponsor migrants for family visas. We will toughen the visa requirements for students, to make sure that we maintain high standards. We will expect students to leave the country at the end of their course
They might expect them to leave, but seeing as nobody is counting how many remain in the UK after their studies, how would they know?
Tory 2019 manifestoAn Australian-style points-based system to control immigration.
There will be fewer lower-skilled migrants and overall numbers will come down. And we will ensure that the British people are always in control.
We finally got the Australian-style points based system. But if you define a skilled worker as flower arrangers on £7.28 an hour, Cake decorators (£9.69 per hour), Baker’s assistants (£9.69 per hour), butcher’s assistants (£10.46 per hour) and Stable hands and kennel maids (£9.13 per hour) as skilled workers it is perhaps not surprising that the overall numbers nearly quadrupled rather than coming down as promised.
Under the Conservatives, our economy has become overly dependent on workers from abroad to fill skills shortages. As a result, we have seen net migration reach record highs; more than triple the level than at the last election in 2019 … The overall level must be properly controlled and managed. Failure to do so reduces the incentives for businesses to train locally. So, Labour will reduce net migration.
In 2024 Labour once again promised to reduce net migration, albeit this time from a level of nearly 700,000 people a year.
Illegal migration is unfair. It is unfair for people to jump the queue in front of people who play by the rules. It is unfair for taxpayers to pay for the hotels and public services. And it is unfair for illegal migrants themselves who risk their lives in the hands of people smugglers …
In the real world:
Immigration is too high. We want to attract the brightest and best skilled migrants to the UK to contribute to our businesses and public services. We must bring migration numbers down to sustainable levels to reduce the impacts on public services and housing and to restore public confidence in the system.
We will introduce a binding, legal cap on migration, set on work and family visas so public services are protected whilst we bring the skills our businesses and the NHS needs…The cap will fall every year of the next Parliament and cannot be breached…We will give parliament an annual vote on the level of the cap so that the British people can have confidence that immigration numbers will be controlled.
Roughly 13 million new immigrants and twenty years later, there’s that legally binding cap promise again. And still not delivered.
The next time you get told that the British people are not interested in (and their elected representatives have never offered them) lower immigration, stronger borders or asylum reform, please show them this article.
As I wrote here, the Labour Manifesto of 2015 was right. Broken promises erode trust. Now, decades of lies and broken promises particularly in the field of immigration is precisely why public trust in political parties has collapsed to just 12 per cent in the UK:
It is also why there is so much public anger and despondency, why the anti-immigration protests happened and, yes, also to some extent why these protests turned violent. And it is also why, regardless of how many people the Starmer Government lock up, this issue will not be resolved until the fundamental cause — mass immigration the public do not support — is dealt with.
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