Labour is predicted to win by an extraordinary landslide this Thursday. Looking at the number of seats alone, one would conclude that this was an epochal shift on the lines of 1983 or 1997. The former saw the Tories ultimately extend their time in office to 18 years, and the latter put Labour in power for 13. Thatcher secured a majority of 144 seats, Blair 179. Starmer, according to a recent poll, is potentially on track to win an unbelievable, mind boggling majority of 280. If it happens, there will have been nothing like it in modern times since the 1931 National government which saw the three major parties go into government together. Even if Labour falls far short of this grand total, it seems certain it will set a new post-war record. 

But approach the looming peak that is the Labour majority and take a closer look — the mountain is made of butter, and is liable to start melting at the first touch of political daylight. 

There are a number of extraordinary facts that reveal just how butter-soft this monstrous majority is. First of all, Starmer, the man who will be in charge of this mass, is disapproved of by more members of the public than approve of him, and regularly polls behind his own party. These are not the numbers that transformative, quasi-Presidential figures like Thatcher or Blair commanded at the height of their success. More unbelievably still, this flood of seats is being won on a share of the vote at or less than that which Labour achieved in 2017 under Jeremy Corbyn, in an election they lost. 

The story of this campaign is not of Labour achieving a breakthrough, but of the total moral and ideological collapse of the Conservative party. The posh centrists won over by Cameron have been alienated, and those lured in by populist messaging have been betrayed. Labour, in our First Past the Post system, are simply the only party in a position to take massive advantage of this weakness in a snap election. 

The very size of the Labour majority, and the collapse of the Tory party, spell long term trouble for Labour. In this election, Labour has been able to win over a wide range of voters on the basis that they are the most effective way to get a desperately unpopular and discredited government out of office. The moment that factor is removed, voters will have very little incentive next election not to vote for third parties without fear that it will usher in the return of the Conservatives.  

Five years of Labour trying to please everyone, with little sense of a coherent plan, will almost certainly sour voters on the Left – especially those who voted for them reluctantly in the first place. Both the Greens and the Lib Dems are expected to make gains in this election, and could seriously divide the Labour vote in the future. 

He is hemmed in by inherited commitments that he has only chosen to redouble in his manifesto

Meanwhile, a Labour party committed to fiscal moderation and equipped with a massive majority will naturally default to radical social policy; policy popular in the PLP and with the membership, but will drive away many of the voters they lost in 2019. With Reform expected to enter parliament in this election, and potentially polling ahead of the Tories, there is a very real chance that Farage’s party will make further gains in the next election. The open question is whether an embattled Tory party will tack to the Cameroonian centre, or if it embraces the populism embodied by Reform. With traditional party loyalties so firmly unmoored, a rise in third party support creates unprecedented volatility in our current system. 

What followed previous majorities of this scale were lasting, irrevocable changes to British society. Thatcher shattered the fraying post-war consensus, broke the power of the unions, and set Britain on a new economic course. None of those changes have been reversed, only built on, much to the horror of many traditional Labour voters. In the same way, Blair created a new pseudo constitution through devolution and the HRA, and institutionalised social liberalism in every area of British public life. None of these changes, either, were to be touched, much to the exasperated rage of traditional Conservative voters. 

Whilst Thatcher and Blair are often looked back on with nostalgia, as capable, intellectually gifted politicians, dwarfing the political pygmies who now take the stage, our current problems can be traced to the revolutions they initiated. Political party membership and civic participation alike have collapsed in their wake, and both acted to concentrate power in our administrative state, and take it away from parliament. For all their ideological clarity, they acted to narrow the range of ideas and policies available to their successors, setting politicians on a one way track, and transforming them into managers and technocrats. 

Starmer, armed with this so-called “supermajority” (a term with no actual significance in the British system), appears all powerful, but he is, thanks to those who have come before him, likely to be one of our weakest Prime Ministers. He is hemmed in by inherited commitments that he has only chosen to redouble in his manifesto. The deadline for Net Zero has been moved forward to 2030. Major borrowing increases and tax rises have been ruled out. The limitations imposed by the Human Rights Act are to be added to, with new “social rights” that will make reforming health, social care and welfare far harder. Promises to devolve more powers to nations and regions, and to turn the Lords into an elected chamber, will further restrict what he can actually do in government. 

Might the butter mountain be a puddle by the time of the next election?

Though intended to produce “accountability”, this growing labyrinth of targets, regulations, guidelines and law will ultimately act to destroy it, as politicians will be increasingly powerless to carry out their promises to electorates, and the public will have ever less ability to influence policy through their representatives, with power instead in the hands of judges, managers and civil servants. 

All of this spells trouble for the Labour party, and its vast majority will mean a lot of MPs on the backbenches with no shot at a cabinet post. If Labour starts sinking in the polls, and powers continue to be leached away from parliament, this could be a group with every motivation to make trouble. 

Might the butter mountain be a puddle by the time of the next election? On current polling, it is already potentially the largest swing in postwar history, and there is no reason to think that Labour – which is no more popular now than in 2017 – is immune to the pendulum swinging in the other direction. But even if Labour hangs on, longevity is no mark of success. Just ask the Tories how happy their 14 years in government have been. With considerable discontent on the left and no enthusiastic constituency for Starmer’s project, the same centrifugal forces that tore apart the Tories in office await Labour. A decade in power at a time of unprecedented crisis, making (or failing to make) impossible choices, beset by self-imposed paralysis is not a recipe for the Labour party’s long term health. In many European countries, centre left and right parties have simply been wiped out or reduced to the status of minor players. Our system may insulate mainstream parties for far longer, but it also means they have further to fall when things go drastically wrong. Just ask the Liberal party, whose heirs are currently celebrating an expected 50 seats as a great victory. 

So enjoy your super-hyper-ultra majority whilst you can, Sir Keir — it’s built on butter.