With the ending of the Long Peace, and the waning of American hegemony, we are currently witnessing wars of transition. The extent of these wars, in both duration and scale remains unknown, but in 2025, we may start to see glimpses of the new world order that will emerge in their wake.

Forecasting what will happen in the coming year is a quixotic task. In complex systems, tiny differences in initial conditions can lead to large differences in long-term outcomes. This is often referred to as the butterfly effect, the idea that a butterfly flapping its wings can kickstart a series of events that cause a tsunami on the other side of the planet. The idea can be traced back to mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz and is a key component of Chaos Theory. Lorenz was using a computer simulation to explore weather patterns. He wanted to see a particular sequence of data again, so, to save time, he started the sequence from a point in the middle of its run. Re-running the simulation, a radically different outcome was produced. Lorenz realized this was because the program was set to round numbers off to six decimal places, but the prior results that he used to restart the sequence rounded numbers off to three places. Realizing this tiny difference significantly altered the outcome he noted, “the approximate present does not approximately determine the future.” 

Chaos theory claims that, although the outcomes of complex systems can seem random, there are underlying patterns and feedback loops, and they are deterministic. If we know the current state, it’s theoretically possible to follow cause and effects though and predict outcomes. One of the problems of today, as the surprise with which the rapidly unfolding events in Syria proved, is that we don’t have an accurate picture of the complex, tumultuous and interdependent present. 

As we end 2024, regional conflicts are escalating and spreading, pulling in complex coalitions of global actors. A growing cabal of autocrats are increasingly seeing the benefit of collaborating on drones, intelligence, sanctions-busting, military training and even deploying troops in service of each other’s wars. 

Israel and Iran have traded direct missile attacks (as have Israel and the Houthis who have attacked shipping in the Red Sea disrupting global supply chains) and the reaction to the murderous attacks of 7th October 2023, that has devastated Gaza, expanded to war in Lebanon. A stretched Russia and Iran were unable to prevent the fall of Bashir al-Assad in Syria as they had in 2015. In Europe, North Korean troops have deployed to fight alongside Russian troops attempting to retake Russian land Ukraine has seized, whilst Western weapons are being used to hit targets in Russia. Russia’s “grey zone” war has continued to spread across Europe with increasingly brazen arson, sabotage and cyber-attacks. Warfare is no longer restricted to the battlefield. Donald Trump has vowed to end the war in Ukraine in a day, yet the spreading of conflict looks set to continue in 2025. Indeed, the return of Trump could see an acceleration of the spread.

If Trump is successful in quickly ending the war in Ukraine — which, granted, seems dubious — his ending of one war could hasten the beginning of a new one. Any quick ending is likely to concede Ukrainian land to Russia without concrete security guarantees. This would weaken long-term European security, erode US credibility as an ally and embolden Russia and other states with long-held territorial ambitions. This includes President Xi’s ambitions of reunification with Taiwan. Economic challenges causing near-term internal instability, could change Xi’s timelines for achieving this ambition.

In 2025, Israel will likely complete its operations in Gaza. A ceasefire is possible with Binyamin Netanyahu providing Trump with a foreign policy win in exchange for support with Iran. There will likely be little pressure from Trump for any ceasefire to leave open the possibility of a Palestinian state. He has stated that the return of Hamas-held hostages will be a priority. It will do nothing to ease the pain of a generation of Gazans who have lost loved ones and will leave a fertile recruiting ground for those who will want violent revenge, in Gaza and beyond. 

A fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah doesn’t mean an easing of tensions with Iran. Removing Hezbollah’s offensive capabilities was always a part of a wider plan to deal with the threat of a nuclear Iran. If Trump gives Netanyahu the green light to attack the Iranian nuclear program, he will have to carefully manage his relationship with President Putin. Russia has deepened its relationship with Iran. However, Trump and Putin will feel they can do business with US concessions over Ukraine in exchange of Russian concessions over Iran. Putin’s failure to support his ally Assad other than offering him a wintery abode, has demonstrated his stretched bandwidth and priorities. Separating Putin from Xi would be the ultimate deal for Trump. 

China is walking a delicate line between fostering an anti-US military partnership between Russia, North Korea and Iran, and avoiding sanction regimes and disapproval of key economic partners. Trump has announced he will increase tariffs on China by 10 per cent. Many expect an escalating trade war as Trump uses tariffs as a weapon of diplomacy. 

Philosopher John Gray believes Trump’s return is a geopolitical turning point comparable with the Soviet collapse

Trump’s disruptive and unpredictable approach could have its uses. Yet his inconsistency, aversion to multilateral approaches and vulnerability to flattery will undermine his pursuit of “peace through strength”. Next year may be defined as much by what Trump doesn’t do as by what he does. Philosopher John Gray believes Trump’s return is a geopolitical turning point comparable with the Soviet collapse and marks “the definitive end of a liberal world order.” Going forward Gray believes that countries that relied on American protection face an unavoidable choice: “arm and defend themselves, or else make peace with the rising authoritarian powers.”

America remains an economic superpower at the centre of AI development, which has the potential to create exponential economic growth (albeit with accompanying social upheaval). Trump is a businessman who wants to free US tech-CEOs and entrepreneurs from any restrictions that might limit the boom new technology could create, mixing protectionist policies to protect from foreign competition and deregulation within the US. 

Internationally, Trump, however, sees the US as a hostage of US-led order from which it has benefited. He wants to be free to focus on the primacy of US economic interests not that of Western ideals. His isolationist approach will weaken America’s already waning position. Many in the global south have learnt the lesson of Afghanistan, Libya, and Syria: don’t trust Western coalitions to succeed in protecting the ideals they claim they stand for. Afghanistan, Libya and Syria along with, Burkina Faso, Mali, Somalia, and Sudan are again becoming safe havens for extremism. Their instability will cause further un-forecasted consequences.

Islamic State (IS) was already regrouping in Syria and Iraq, before recent events. Syria could descend into similar chaos that has engulfed Libya. When groups of differing ideologies who are united by a single objective achieve that objective, what they have in common becomes less than their differences. If the dominant rebel group in the push to Damascus, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, who emerged from al-Qaeda, manage to hold together a new Syrian government, the risk of Syria becoming a terrorist safe haven remains. Israel is already taking steps to minimize this risk targeting weapons factories and other elements of Syria’s military infrastructure Terrorist groups affiliated with IS and AQ remain active throughout the Sahel, exploiting local grievances and filling voids left by weak governments and the withdrawal of Western forces. Dormant conflicts are awakening as the powers that suppressed them are pulled elsewhere.

The revival of these terror networks highlights a likely theme of 2025: turning your back on the world, won’t stop the world coming for you. Russia is already waging a “shadow war” on the streets of Europe. Regardless of the outcome in Ukraine, Russia will likely step up its covert activities, including deniable sabotage and arson, political assassinations, cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and the targeting of energy and communications infrastructure and supply chains. Other states who perceive themselves in direct competition and even conflict with the West will also continue to deploy cyber-attacks against similar targets. Head of GCHQ’s National Cyber Security Centre, Richard Horne, used his first major speech to highlight the widening gap between risks the UK faces and its ability to handle them, with actors increasingly using our technology dependence against us. The threat of global disruptions is increasing as hostile actors leverage AI to exploit the proliferation of connected and autonomous devices in critical infrastructure and devices we have in our homes. The threat is not just from states, but from organised crime groups, who will continue to innovate and exploit the chaos of the wars of transition for profit. 

As demonstrated by the fighting between Israeli football fans and Palestinian supporters in Amsterdam, we will see the spread of the Middle Eastern conflict onto the streets of Europe, with protests and counter-protests and bigoted attacks. Trump may find his domestic immigration and narcotic policies will further the spread of Mexican cartel violence on American streets, as sources of cartel labour and revenue are disrupted. A trade war between the US and China will impact the cost of living for all of us. 

A new world order will eventually be established out of the ashes of these wars of transition. Xi will hope to see an American retreat from global affairs that will further the emergence of a China-centred alternative to the western dominated financial system and Chinese global leadership. Through state investment and espionage China is attempting to surpass the West’s technological and military capabilities. Across the Global South China has provided tools for autocracy and debt in exchange for natural resources and trade, through the Belt and Road Initiative and its successor, the Global Development Initiative. But Xi’s vision is of order, not chaos. 

This order would eschew norms and alliance systems based on universal values in favour of non-binding partnerships based on common interests (this is not dissimilar to Trump’s view, the tension between the two is over who has primacy in this new world of “equals”). China’s Global Civilization Initiative promotes a system based on distinctive civilizations, each with their own values whose sovereignty must be respected. The Global Security Initiative presents a framework for security cooperation in opposition to US alliances. The so-called “Middle powers”, especially those with the raw materials required for the technologies we are building, will make their own deals with China, the US and each other, forgoing ideological alignment for compartmentalised arrangements across security and trade. The old order is fragmenting but a new order will form.  

What the new order will be is not yet determined. At times of transition, it is more important than ever to fight the tendency to assume that tomorrow will be much like today. Whilst there is little new in human behaviour, the specific circumstances of the world are ever changing. 

… the world is changing and the speed of that change is accelerating

Mathematician Pierre-Simon Laplace claimed that if there was a vast enough intellect to comprehend the position of every atom in the universe and able to analyse all the forces of nature in motion at one point in time, it could embrace in a single formula the movements of the greatest bodies of the universe to those of the tiniest atom. For such an intellect nothing would be uncertain. This intellect has been called Laplace’s demon. Some technologists believe we will be able to build AI that can rival Laplace’s demon. Our ancestors searched for portents in the sky, we will search for answers in the digital clouds. While our understanding remains less than perfect, we attempt to avoid the many heuristics that cloud our thinking and assign probability to potential futures rather than talk of The Future.

There are few potential futures where turning our back on the world works out well for the UK. There is a significant probability that in 2025 we will see escalating competition between the new Trump administration, China and constantly adapting blocks of middle powers. We will need to develop new coalitions and institutions that can act as bulwarks to shifting powers and defend ourselves from wars and threats that are creeping their way towards us. If we fail, the growing cabal of autocrats will take advantage, and the possible future will become an actual future of disorder. What we can be sure of, though, is that the world is changing and the speed of that change is accelerating.