How the “Burnham bind” will rewrite British politics

When asked what was most likely to blow a government off course, Tory Prime Minister Harold Macmillan famously replied: “Events, dear boy, events!” Leaders can make all the plans they like, but unexpected crises ultimately dictate the course of history.

Think of it as the British version of Mike Tyson’s classic line: everyone has a plan until they get “punched in the mouth”. 

One such event is looming in just two weeks’ time: the Makerfield by-election. A Labour victory here is highly likely to pave the way for a new prime minister in the form of Andy Burnham – a figure far better equipped to secure a second term for the party than the hapless Keir Starmer.

Meanwhile on the right, Restore Britain are hoping to completely wreck Reform UK’s prospects for entering Downing Street. Rupert Lowe’s insurgent party is tracking at 7 per cent in the constituency – a result that would instantly deny Farage a victory in a seat he should win by rights. 

For this reason, Makerfield is the most important by-election in British politics since the Tory defeat in Eastbourne back in October 1990. That fateful contest marked the beginning of the end for Margaret Thatcher, as it exposed deep Conservative divisions in the aftermath of the poll tax and Nigel Lawson’s departure from the Treasury.

Makerfield, like Eastbourne, is a proxy battle for the future leadership of the country. But unlike the Tory defeat in 1990, which ushered in the limp managerialism of John Major, Makerfield could pave the way for a shameless Labour populist who has reinvented himself more times than Madonna.

Burnham’s threat to Farage

Andy Burnham has made no secret of his ambition to overthrow the prime minister – and if elected he would have a real shot at winning. A YouGov poll of Labour members found he would beat Starmer in a leadership contest by 59 to 37.

Those numbers are hardly surprising. As a communicator, Burnham projects political urgency in a way that feels far more authentic than Starmer’s scripted lines and barrister-style evasions. One of Labour’s big problems is that the prime minister is a walking-talking disaster zone. 

Burnham is also respected within Labour as a competent mayor – despite a track record littered with white elephant vanity projects.

He is admired for donating 15 per cent of his salary to fund a housing project for the homeless in Greater Manchester. And his decision to bring buses back under public control is held up by allies as proof that municipal socialism can still deliver.

A major poll by More in Common revealed that Labour would rack up an impressive eight-point surge with Burnham at the helm, lifting the party to 30 per cent and dragging them ahead of Reform UK. 

More recent polling has been less flattering to the “King of the North”, putting him three points behind Farage. But it still suggests he possesses the unique political gravity needed to choke off Reform’s momentum.

That poses a serious problem for the populist right, especially if Burnham defeats Starmer in a leadership contest and uses his time in government to force through proportional representation (PR) – a constitutional reform he has long championed. 

What makes Burnham especially dangerous is his chameleon-like instinct for self-preservation

Switching to PR will deal a devastating blow to Farage’s party, making it incredibly difficult for them to ever form a populist government on their own. At the same time, it hands Labour a safety net, allowing Burnham to cobble together a left-wing rainbow coalition if the electoral math gets too difficult.

King of the U-turn

What makes Burnham especially dangerous is his chameleon-like instinct for self-preservation. Pleasant and polished though he is, Burnham is farcically inconsistent. As the old Westminster joke goes, “A Blairite, a Brownite and a Corbynite walk into a bar. The landlord asks: “What will you have, Andy?””

Since entering the Makerfield contest, Burnham has shifted ground on immigration, the European Union and single-sex spaces. He has even toned down his stance on government borrowing to reassure City investors. Every one of those reversals has pulled him towards the centre-right. 

To win the seat, Burnham has recast himself as a “Blue Labour” figure – interventionist on economics, but tougher on border controls and the culture wars. 

He is dumping all his left-wing baggage into a state-heavy economic plan, and his latest attacks on “Thatcherism” prove exactly where he is heading. But when it comes to social values, Burnham is courting Middle England voters he wouldn’t usually pass the time of day with.

It is a cynical, calculating move that has created a genuinely bizarre spectacle: the Burnham bind. Simply put, the mayor for Greater Manchester is trapped between two ideological choices. If he sticks with one, he torpedoes the other. 

The “Burnham bind” is simple: Does he tank his campaign in Makerfield by staying true to trendy woke liberalism just to keep party loyalists smiling? Or does he pretend to be a traditional Blue Labour patriot to win the seat, risking a scorched-earth war with the Labour Left?

This tactical nightmare dropped into his lap by sheer accident. Blocked by Labour’s National Executive Committee (NEC) from standing in the left-wing seat of Gorton and Denton, Burnham has instead been dumped into a dogfight in right-leaning Makerfield. This reality has forced an emergency strategic overhaul – a rewrite that cuts directly against what appear to be Burnham’s actual beliefs. 

The high-and-mighty NEC may have just rewritten the future of British politics by accident. By forcing him onto hostile electoral turf, the Makerfield by-election has completely ripped up the rulebook on how Andy Burnham intends to rule.

Blue Labour

What makes this situation stranger still is that Blue Labourism remains a fringe current within the parliamentary Labour Party, associated mainly with figures such as academic Maurice Glasman and marginal MPs like Jonathan Hinder. 

But Makerfield could catapult this marginal tendency into the mainstream in the most accidental way imaginable. 

Burnham’s allies may dislike the implications, yet Blue Labour politics is far closer to public opinion than many in Westminster care to admit, and could ultimately leave Labour in a much stronger position once the Starmer era comes to an end. (Maurice Glasman, it should be remembered, is a long-standing friend of Nigel Farage and a regular panellist on his show.)

Whether Burnham can sustain such a balancing act is another question entirely. My suspicion is that he will eventually revert to type, but only once the general election is safely out of the way.

Setting that aside, I believe the “Burnham bind” will dominate British politics over the next year, provided Burnham wins in Makerfield. On the one hand, it will grant him enormous flexibility and wriggle room, allowing him to easily dodge accusations of being too socially progressive for the British electorate. 

The flip side is the sheer stench of it all. It cements his status as the most slippery, shameless, and opportunistic chameleon in British politics since Harold Wilson – a low-point I assumed we’d never see matched. 

But don’t underestimate the voters: the public is far more forgiving of a political flip-flop than the pundits ever realise.