The Islamopopulist march continues

Thursday’s elections left us overwhelmed with political headlines. Starmer’s potential end, Reform turning the Red Wall turquoise, the Greens kicking Labour out of long held London strongholds, Scottish and Welsh nationalism ascendant. But in parts of East London, Birmingham, East Lancashire and West Yorkshire the political changes signposted by the general election victory of four Gaza Independent MPs continue. A new report by Policy Exchange “Islamopopulism Part 2: The Muslim Vote, Vote Palestine and Muslim independents in their own words” details an activist led 25-year plan to develop a bloc of Muslim politicians, whom its adherents believe may hold the balance of power after a future general election. 

While The Muslim Vote campaign has big ambitions, at the local level campaigning appears to lack central direction. In practice the tactical model developed by Lutfur Rahman and later Aspire in Tower Hamlets — activists being as prominent as possible in concentrated areas with a high number of Muslim voters and ensuring that the community comes out to vote — is now being replicated in a series of towns and cities.  

At ground level Islamopopulism combines international, national, local and at times personal issues in a cocktail that is proving increasingly palatable to Muslim voters. At the top sits support for the Muslim ummah (the global community of Muslims) and in particular the Palestinian cause, followed by a robust rejection of the Labour party and Prime Minister Starmer. But the local also matters — in Blackburn with Darwen, the 4BwD group, its origins in a break by local Muslims from Labour over Gaza, ran with literature that led on regenerating the high street, restoring local amenities and prioritising small local businesses. Six of 4BwD’s eight candidates — all male, all seemingly Muslim and of Indian subcontinental heritage — won. 

Nor should the personal be entirely discounted. For any ambitious British Muslim looking for a career in politics, the Independent route now seems as good as any. It is notable that two of the central figures in the Newham Independents — Mehmood Mirza and Sophia Naqvi — had each been prominent activists in fractious Newham Labour party branches without obtaining office. Both are now Councillors. On their website, the Newham Independents describe their rise as representing “a growing demand for diverse representation and a departure from traditional party politics” — although of the 24-strong Newham Independents council group, all appear to come from one section of the community. 

Mehmood Mirza may have become Mayor of Newham, but for the Greens splitting the anti-Labour vote. Indeed, for Islamopopulism the issue of the Green Party may become pressing. Traditionally libertarian on sex and drugs, and resolutely pro-trans, the Greens developed a sort of non-aggression pact with Muslims on these matters. This, and determined campaigning on Palestine brought dividends in the Gorton and Denton by-election; and the Greens’ stock has continued to rise in areas with significant Muslim populations. The relationship however remains transactional. The Muslim Vote’s guidance is to vote for Independent candidates first, but to vote Green, or for Welsh or Scottish nationalists, where no Independent is available. 

Clearly strange bedfellows ideologically, it is unclear how long the green-Green alliance will last. In Birmingham a Green Party candidate, Hanooshi Hassan, complained in April of receiving threats while leafletting a mosque and was told that the Greens were the “gay party”. Since the election the Greens have received criticism for splitting the anti-Labour vote in Newham, Redbridge and Birmingham, although it is far from clear if a national party — which is what the Greens are — would be willing to stand aside for Independent candidates in any major election. With the Greens also under pressure due to a series of damaging media exposures of antisemitic candidates in their ranks, other organisations will be watching closely. George Galloway’s Worker’s Party of Britain and Jeremy Corbyn’s Your Party would each like to take their place in The Muslim Vote’s affections. Neither, to coin a phrase, is likely to be “out-Palestined”. 

So, how to respond to all this? There is little sign that the main loser to Islamopopulism — the Labour party — has the understanding or will to develop a counter to it. Labour pushed back against the Greens and Reform UK in these elections but said or did very little in response to the Islamopopulists. It is hard to imagine a Labour version of the Conservatives’ old anti-UKIP unit, churning out data and detailed rebuttal of rival political positions, but aimed squarely at the Islamopopulists in Birmingham, the north and London. If not now, however, when? 

The biggest questions though are for the wider British body politic. How ready are we for a politico-religious bloc in our Town Halls and Westminster? And if that is something we can do without, how best to oppose it? Such questions may not make the political headlines in a week when the Prime Minister is fighting for his political life. But we are at a point where they cannot be avoided any longer.