Ethnic minorities are abandoning Labour

It is well known that Muslims, once a reliable Labour voting bloc, have been defecting from the party in droves — largely due to their perception that Labour under Keir Starmer was too pro-Israel and insufficiently pro-Palestine. Yet a new YouGov poll reveals that other ethnic minorities are abandoning the party too. 

According to a YouGov poll taken shortly before the 2024 election, 53 per cent of ethnic minority voters intended to vote Labour. The corresponding figure in the new poll is only 26 per cent, which means that ethnic minority support for Labour has dropped by 27 points in just two years. This understates the total decline because part of the drop among Muslims had already occurred by the time of the 2024 election. 

The decline in support for Labour among ethnic minorities is far larger than it is in the population as a whole. Labour won 34 per cent of the vote in 2024 and is currently on about 18 per cent in the polls, which equates to a 16-point drop (still bad, of course, but not as catastrophic). 

The chart below shows the distribution of party support among ethnic minorities in 2024 and 2026. Support for Labour has collapsed, while support for all other parties has risen. The Greens are up by 11 points, the Conservatives by 6 points and the Lib Dems by 7 points.

The next chart shows the ethnic breakdown of support for Labour in 2024 and 2026. The collapse is seen in all five broad ethnic groups, rather than being driven by one specific group. Support is down 33 points among Black voters, 16 points among Pakistanis and Bangladeshis, and 17 points among Indians. 

The decline among Pakistanis and Bangladeshis since 2019 is, of course, much greater. Back then, 86 per cent of British Muslims said they had voted Labour in the election. And if we assume that the figure for Pakistanis and Bangladeshis was roughly the same, then support for Labour among those two groups has crashed by a whopping 58 points — all in just six years. 

It might be said that 2019 is not representative because Labour was then led by the fiercely pro-Palestine Jeremy Corbyn. But even if we go back to 2015 when Ed Miliband was leader, 72 per cent of British Muslims backed Labour. Taking 2015 as the starting point (and making the same assumption as above) implies that support for Labour among Pakistanis and Bangladeshis has crashed by a minimum of 44 points.

To give you a sense of perspective, that’s about twice as large as the fall in Democrat identification among Southern Whites in the US during the 1960s. 

Which parties are each group’s voters now backing? Pakistanis and Bangladeshis have largely defected to the Greens and, to a lesser extent, the Lib Dems. They are therefore still heavily concentrated among the left-wing parties, with only 11 per cent intending to vote for the Conservatives, Reform or Restore.

But this is less true of the other groups’ voters. Although all ethnic minorities still lean left, 24 per cent of Black voters, 27 per cent of Mixed voters and 40 per cent of Indians now say they would vote for a right-wing party. In 2024, the corresponding figures were only 18 per cent for Black voters, 16 per cent for Mixed voters and 37 per cent for Indians.

So what explains the collapse in ethnic minority support for Labour? Gaza is clearly a major reason, not only for Muslims but for others too. In a recent Opinium poll of voters who switched from Labour to another left-wing party, 70 per cent of those from ethnic minorities said that the party’s position on Gaza was a factor in their decision. The corresponding figure for White switchers was only 50 per cent. 

This makes sense. The British Election Study shows that almost all ethnic minorities are more pro-Palestine than White Britons, though this is partly a function of their younger average age.

However, Labour’s position on Gaza is surely not the only grievance held by ethnic minority voters who’ve abandoned it for another party on the Left. Unfortunately, other recent polls of switchers have not distinguished White voters from ethnic minorities. Nonetheless, they highlight complaints such as Labour being “out of touch” and having “broken or not delivered on promises”.   

Indeed, a majority of ethnic minority voters say the cost of living is the most important issue facing the country, and it makes sense that many would be dissatisfied with Labour’s record on that issue. 

As for those who’ve abandoned Labour for the Conservatives, it seems plausible that the party’s recent leadership has played some role. The Conservatives are the only major party to have had a non-White leader, and they’ve had two in short succession: Rishi Sunak and Kemi Badenoch. This trend may have led some previously hesitant non-White voters to conclude they’re now welcome in what was once dubbed “the nasty party” (partly on account of its narrow electoral base).

Whatever the exact combination of factors, it’s clear that the exodus from Labour extends well beyond the two Muslim groups. Andy Burnham has his work cut out.