The recent Irish election cycle was the dullest in memory. The campaigning lasted three weeks, with the highlights being an awkward interaction between the Taoiseach and a voter in Kanturk and the near-election of reputed gangland boss Gerry Hutch. Outside of this, none of the three major parties managed to capture the public’s imagination, a sentiment reflected in the remarkably low voter turnout — despite a campaign by the electoral commission to increase voter registration.

After the last general election, Sinn Féin appeared to be a government-in-waiting, with the party polling as high as 36 per cent by mid-2022. However, Sinn Féin was slow to react to the rise of anti-immigration sentiment in the following months, causing it to haemorrhage support from its traditional working-class base. The party responded by consolidating itself in the centre — the space already occupied by the two governing parties.

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael’s smaller Green Party coalition partner bore the brunt of public anger against the government, losing all but one seat in Dublin West. All major parties were insulated from taking significant losses due to the addition of 13 extra seats to the parliament across the country.

Perhaps the greatest irony of this election, however, was that despite a two-year-long moral panic about the rise of populism across the country, it was the three major parties that embraced populism to secure their seats in the run-up to the election.

The government broke its own spending rules to afford the splurge

Less than two months before the general election, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael introduced one of the largest giveaway budgets in the history of the state. This included plans to provide free schoolbooks to Leaving Cert students and free meals to all primary school students. The government’s budget promised to triple the current €140 monthly child payment for the first month of a child’s life and double this payment before Christmas. Fine Gael proposed creating a €1,000 savings account for each child at birth. The budget also maintained the €1,000 cut to third-level fees for the next academic year. Despite Ireland’s struggling SME sector, the budget sought to increase the minimum wage by 6 per cent, making it the second-highest in Europe.

Sinn Féin’s campaign was also characterised by unrealistic promises, such as building public housing for €250,000 per house — half the current construction cost in Dublin — and a three-year rent freeze. Whilst these promises were popular, as evidenced by the election results, there is a stark difference between what is popular and what is right, with all three major parties favouring the former.

For instance, the government’s giveaway budget will add an additional €10.5 billion to state expenditure. This marks a significant increase in the cost of running the state, which has risen sharply in recent years — from €71.3 billion in 2020 to a projected €105.4 billion in 2025.

Concerningly, the government broke its own spending rules to afford the splurge. The Parliamentary Budget Office has already warned that this could exacerbate inflation, reducing the value of the promised benefits. Despite being aware of this, the government proceeded with the budget.

Ireland’s economic challenges are complex. The two largest revenue sources for the state are income tax (€36 billion) and corporation tax (€34 billion). A significant majority of the corporation tax revenue comes from American multinationals, with 80 per cent of the total generated by foreign companies. Similarly, income tax revenue is concentrated in vulnerable sectors, such as tech, which accounts for 6.4 per cent of employment but 12 per cent of all income tax revenue.

President-elect Donald Trump has signalled his intent to onshore these very multinationals. Adding to this, Ireland is currently America’s seventh-largest trade deficit partner. Trump’s proposed 10 per cent-20 per cent tariffs on European goods could significantly harm the Irish economy. If implemented, the populist promises made by the major parties risk driving inflation and could have long-term consequences for the state’s financial stability.

The centre held in this election by embracing populism, but there are signs of fraying at the edges. As Dr. Matt Tracey noted, almost 14 per cent of votes nationwide were cast against the liberal consensus, whilst a further 58 per cent voted against the return of a Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael government. As Ireland enters an era of greater uncertainty, it is questionable whether one-off payments and handouts will suffice as a lifeline to sustain the political establishment in the future.