It has to be Kemi. During Thursday night’s live leadership hustings on GB News, the former Secretary of State for Business and Trade put in a bravura performance.

Fiery and aggressive, with shimmers of humour — “Is she on something?” my mother asked — Badenoch staked out a Conservative philosophy covering everything from the NHS and education, to the size of government and human rights. Certainly the room was with her: when Christopher Hope asked the audience at the end who they’d be voting for, 90 per cent raised their hands for Badenoch.

It all seemed to slip away from Robert Jenrick.

Jenrick is fresh faced. But the package is stale

It’s not that he was bad, exactly — though his “sixth former at the end of year photo” presentation and robotic delivery are familiar: reminiscent of dozens of senior Conservative politicians we’ve been subjected to over the past two decades. Still, “bad” would be the wrong word.

Jenrick is fresh faced. But the package is stale. An obsessive focus on immigration and a wildly destructive attempt to open old Brexit wounds with his flagship policy on leaving the ECHR create a sense of bitterness and déjà vu. His most vocal supporters don’t help. Christopher Chope, Bill Cash, David Campbell-Bannerman, Nadine Dorries — these are fringe figures, struggling to come to terms with a world that’s moved on.

Ultimately, voters crave authenticity. And there is nothing authentic about Jenrick. How could there be? He is, after all, a milquetoast career politician, who has suddenly reinvented himself as a right-wing headbanger. Badenoch has developed her views over a long period.

Whilst Jenrick polls poorly with voters the Conservatives need to convince, the opposite is true for Badenoch. “Strong”, “a bit more normal”, “a bit more genuine”, “no-nonsense”. For a rump party, these reactions are gold dust.

Because here’s the thing: Labour is faltering. Sir Keir Starmer’s government has got off to a dreadful start. The Prime Minister is deeply unpopular. Despite the historic, and entirely deserved, drubbing meted out to the Tories in July, the next election is wide open.

Capitalising on this means installing a leader the public are willing to listen to. Someone who can appeal not just to Tory-Reform switchers, but those who voted Labour and Liberal Democrat — and the millions of former Conservative voters who decided to sit the last election out.

There is no reason to believe Robert Jenrick can do this. However, Kemi Badenoch might.

Yes, she is brave — and willing to champion causes other politicians are afraid of. But she is also thoughtful. Notably, it wasn’t Badenoch tossing out red meat on Thursday night; yet it was Badenoch that swung the audience.

This is important because, to recover, the Tory Party will need to engage with lots of uncomfortable truths about itself. 

Out in the country, it is hated. The public feels misled, betrayed, taken advantage of, and worse.

Internally, CCHQ is in disrepair, the candidates’ list requires a complete overhaul, and bad blood unleashed by Boris Johnson still curdles too much thinking. Against this backdrop, it would be foolish to think that 121 MPs is a floor. As Badenoch herself notes, make the wrong choice now, and things can get worse.

I am not a Conservative member, although I used to be, and, whilst I’ve always previously voted for the Tories, I sat out the last election.

… it’s Badenoch or bust

I write this, therefore, not as somebody tangled up in the day-to-day tittle-tattle and intrigue of this contest, but as a critical friend who, perhaps foolishly, thinks it would be better for British democracy if our oldest political party decided to make itself viable again.

Only one candidate has any chance of doing this. As Thursday night demonstrated, for the Tories, it’s Badenoch or bust.