Europe has always stood alone

In an extraordinary piece of public spectacle, Volodymyr Zelensky, Donald Trump and JD Vance had a blazing row in the Oval Office before the world’s press. Vance had just denounced the previous American administration for failing to consider diplomacy. Zelensky attempted to give the Vice President a history lesson in Russia aggression, and very quickly things descended from there, with the leader of Ukraine denounced for ingratitude, and himself fuming openly at his erstwhile allies. And erstwhile they seem to be. Soon afterwards, America paused its military support to Ukraine, until such time as Zelensky proves willing to sign a deal on Trump’s terms. 

Speculation abounded that the White House had planned to “ambush” Zelensky in order to justify just such a move. Furious debate has raged not only about the meeting, but about the blame for the Ukraine conflict. Russia is the clear aggressor, but many critics have pointed to the West’s own bad faith in expanding the borders of NATO hundreds of miles eastwards, and seeking to draw Ukraine itself into the economic and military orbit of the EU and NATO. 

Litigating how we got here is one thing, but a truth is slowly dawning on Western leaders. Europe stands alone. American military and economic support is not inevitable, and may be withdrawn at any time, should domestic political feeling turn against intervention in Eurasia. Zelensky spoke mockingly — “you have nice ocean” — about America’ distance from the conflict. But America is thousands of miles away, and it does have the option of disowning Europe’s problems. 

As the biggest player at the table, America will always, and has always rigged the game in its favour

The ocean is very nice indeed. It lets America project economic and military power globally, but insulates it from the consequences of global instability. Successive crises in the Gulf, and now Eastern Europe, have imperilled European energy security for decades, but they never touched oil and gas rich North America. When the War on Terror went horribly wrong, destabilising much of the Middle East and North Africa, the refugee crisis hit European shores, and touched the USA not at all. When US allies fall behind economically, they are at fault for their closed labour markets and protectionist economies. But when American workers feel the pain of competition, as from Japan in the 1980s, Ronald Reagan, champion of the free market, imposed 100 per cent tariffs, and got his European allies to assist him in devaluing the dollar. Under tremendous pressure, the once booming Asian economy fell behind and stagnated. Japan was an American ally producing better and cheaper products, but neither America’s supposed commitment to freedom nor decades of friendship counted for anything compared to maintaining economic hegemony. 

As the biggest player at the table, America will always, and has always rigged the game in its favour. As I have previously written, geographic detachment and a self-sufficient continental empire render America a country with no need for friends. Allies are just signal boosters for American economic, cultural and military power. If they amplify what the US is putting out, then all well and good. If they fail to, America has never been slow to bring supposed allies sharply to heel. 

Trump’s language of “holding all the cards” sounds brutally cynical, and has sparked anger around the Western world. It is right that Europeans are pissed off, but it is criminally stupid that we’re surprised. Before Trump there was Biden, who intervened openly to undermine British sovereignty in Northern Ireland, and sidelined France in the AUKUS deal, hurting its economy and international standing in order to consolidate US influence in the South Pacific. Anything that smacks of bilateral defence and security arrangements between US allies, especially when power is projected overseas, has always been swiftly slapped down. Most infamously French and British interests in the Middle East were forever ended during the Suez crisis at the hands of President Eisenhower. The US engaged in straightforward economic warfare against Britain, as it had back in 1947, when it forced Britain to end economic protectionism across its Empire and Commonwealth. 

The effect of living in America’s vast shadow, consuming its products and culture, relying on its military for our defence, and allowing it to dictate the course of our economy and culture has not been backlash and resistance, especially not here in the UK. Instead, the experience of becoming an imperial province has engendered a supine and sentimental devotion to all things American. What anti-American sentiment there is itself apes the American progressive left, with desperate sneering at US gun culture, militarism and smaller social safety net. Some Europeans look down on America, but they still wear blue jeans, eat fast food, watch American movies and, of course, fail to genuinely challenge the American model of free markets and individualism. 

This is a chance for our continent and our European civilisation to shake itself back awake

One of the most dangerous habits that vassalage has wrought in the minds of Europeans is the illusion that we live outside of history and geography, the destined heirs of perpetual economic growth and everlasting peace. In this story economic prosperity is something that just happens, rather than a gift to be carefully defended and nurtured. Russian aggression is an aberration, a retread of Nazism, but one that can be defeated with fine words and American moral leadership. The idea that Russia — a proud nation of 140 million people, with vast natural resources and a history that is both tragic and glorious in equal measure — is going anywhere is for the birds. Even if military victory in Ukraine is possible, and at who knows what terrible cost, Russia is not going away. It will be there 10, 50, 100 years hence. Will America still be as invested in European security in that unguessable future? 

Despite the shows of support for Zelensky, and the chest thumping over an independent European effort in Ukraine, the reality of American strategic self interest has yet to really sink in. Many European leaders, I suspect, are just waiting for the return of American “normalcy”, the loved Egyptian night of European complacency to which they all long to return. This is a chance for our continent and our European civilisation to shake itself back awake, and stride back onto the stage of history. Real independence from America will mean stepping out of the nursery, and making the kind of brutally hard decisions that even the most benign of great powers have to contend with. 

What are the bitter pills that have to be swallowed? First of all, Russia is forever, or had best be treated as such. If Europeans don’t want to be back in the trenches, or wondering when the lights are going out, they will need to not just frustrate Putin temporarily, but reach a long term rapprochement with Russia. Appeasement of course will not work. Europe will have to start spending serious cash on defence, and achieve industrial and energy security. None of that will be fast, it will involve compromising environmental targets in the short term, and it will mean cutting the cord with America. For all that Trump says he wants Europe to pull its weight, America only wants a Cold War style NATO tooled up to support US interests, not a geopolitical counterweight to its interests. Diverging from American objectives not only means finding ways to deal pragmatically with US foes, but building up infrastructure and industry that can compete with American economic might. 

Harsher choices yet lie ahead, however. A Europe that wants to neither lose its soul nor its identity will have to contend with the migrant crisis. Demographics are destiny, and low birth rates and open borders spell the end of Europe as we have known it unless something changes. Openness to migration is no multicultural answer to economic and social stagnation, but rather an accelerant. Cheap labour stifles innovation and suppresses wages. It drives political division and populism. It creates competition for housing and services. It weakens our sense of national and local culture. It undermines the welfare state and at the current scale it is outpacing integration. Increasingly, indeed, one might ask integration into what? We don’t know who we are and what we stand for. 

Fortress Europe is one solution, but it seems unlikely we have the heart to simply abandon the suffering poor of the world, throw desperate souls back into the Mediterranean and pull up the drawbridge. Even if we had the will, something basic would be lost in a civilisation that was founded on Christian moral universalism. Demographic and spiritual death threaten on both sides. The solution exists, but it is unlikely to be palatable to many. Europe will have to take a direct hand once again in stabilising Africa and Asia, it will have to extend its military might as it used to do, beyond its borders. If it does not, and even if America withdraws from the stage as it currently appears to, matters will not attend to themselves. More chaos and destruction will be unleashed if we stand aside, and refugees may even be weaponised by our enemies, as they have been in Belarus. China, and who knows what other rising powers, may extend neo-colonial sway across the developing world. Islamism will continue to rise if nothing is done to stop it, and European trade, resources and security will become the hostage of hostile forces overseas.

We need and want no repeat of the madness of democracy being extended by drone strike, but unless Europe is willing to take a hand in stabilising the world, and defending its interests overseas, other, far less humanitarian-minded forces will step into the vacuum left by a retreating West. It means all the ugly costs and compromises of power — but Europeans are fast losing the luxury of being spectators in world affairs.