Scandalous but Scottish

What was all the bother about? Arrests, caravans, committees, ferries, hospitals, and schools: the list of SNP scandals is longer than the Ardnamurchan Peninsula. Despite this, Thursday’s election result brought another commanding victory for First Minister John Swinney’s party. As the horizons open to another five years of SNP-led government, intangible independence remains an irresistible electoral force.

The SNP won what can best be termed a crushing plurality, winning 57 seats out of 129. Across the length and breadth of Scotland, they reasserted their authority over Scottish politics following the setback of the 2024 Westminster election. With constituency votes being counted first, they were assured of a pre-eminent position in Parliament by early Friday afternoon, while the rest had to wait for the list seats to be announced later. The Nationalists’ 38 per cent of the constituency vote was almost double that of the second-highest party, Labour, who got 19 per cent. This might be a decline from the 48 per cent the SNP got during the post-pandemic separatist ecstasy, but compared to the wider British political picture, it is still an impressive result.

Scotland’s incumbent Nationalists had their fair share of luck, but that should not distract from what was a significant win. In the northeast, Reform UK and the Conservatives cannibalised each other. The civil war on Britain’s right allowed SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn to win Aberdeen Deeside by 244 votes over the Conservative candidate, Liam Kerr — Reform won 6,000 votes. The SNP also won Banff and Buchan Coast, but this time Reform came second by a few hundred ballots, as the Conservatives stubbornly came through with 6,000 votes of their own. While both parties will squabble over “letting the SNP in”, neither result would have significantly changed the national picture.

The SNP didn’t have it all their own way. In Edinburgh Central, Nationalist “big beast” Angus Robertson lost to the Greens’ Lorna Slater, while other parts of the capital fell to the Lib Dems as well as Labour. In Glasgow, the Greens also won a constituency seat, with their candidate Holly Bruce triumphing in Nicola Sturgeon’s former Southside seat.

Despite these losses, in middle Scotland, the SNP know no equal. Outside the student-thronged centres of Edinburgh, Glasgow, and St Andrews, or the local politics of the Highlands, Borders, and Northeastern peripheries, there is a sea of yellow. John Swinney may not have a majority, but the Liberal Democrats and Greens will not make forming a minority government particularly strenuous.

Independence, although a largely metaphorical threat, provides the perfect blend of stability and revolution. A vote for the SNP is, at the same time, a vote for incumbency, protection from the vagaries of Westminster, and an impassioned rejection of the British state, even if the SNP government has so often mirrored the fashions attributed to those inside the M25. The 2026 elections show that Scottish dysfunction is infinitely preferable to the British variant. Politicians south of the Tweed will soon have to learn this lesson in nationalism themselves.

The SNP winning 57 out of 73 constituencies makes the remaining 56 list seats — the proportional part of the electoral system — seem like a consolation prize. That is because they are. The SNP are so successful in the constituency vote that it is mathematically almost impossible for them to win any list seats. As such, many of their voters’ list ballots drift over to the Greens, the other significant pro-independence party. Thanks in part to this effect, every Scottish voter will be represented by the Greens through a regional list MSP.

Waiting for the list count occupied the writer, as well as the poor political pundits on BBC Scotland, most of Friday evening. Apart from a good night for the aforementioned SNP, Greens, and Liberal Democrats in the Highlands, it was a dreich set of final results for every other party.

Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar conceded almost immediately and blamed a “national wave”. Although Keir Starmer is easy to blame, Labour were only continuing their trend of losing vote share in every single Scottish election since 1999. They have no answer to the constitutional issue when it comes to Holyrood. Their only consolation was that Scotland’s long-embattled right saw little sign of a breakthrough either.

The trick to the SNP’s success is in their name

The rise of Reform has consigned the Conservatives to the Borders and the Northeast; this is only the confirmation of a reality the recesses of the list vote used to hide. Reform, however, didn’t have the strength to make the impact that was expected, especially in light of results in Wales and northern England. Despite being the new kid on the block, they are well within the pack of established also-rans. Tying with Labour by winning 17 seats is an achievement for what is a new party at these elections, but Reform won’t be the force that challenges the SNP for control of Scotland.

The trick to the SNP’s success is in their name. They are, as a woman in Hamilton once told me, the “Scottish one.” Scandalous as the last five years have been, this can’t be taken away from them. Nor during that time, have the other parties in Holyrood offered up much resistance. The oft-maligned Gender Recognition Reform Bill was backed by politicians from all parties in Holyrood. Thursday’s vote shows that the SNP’s mundane utopianism cannot be dimmed by reality, no matter how bad the news may seem. Only a challenger that can lambast Westminster while criticising Holyrood stands any chance of defeating them. It would probably help if it had “Scottish” in its name too.