A tale of two Africas

The west and east African countries of the Ivory Coast and Eritrea sit about five and a half thousand kilometres apart from one another, at opposite ends of that great continent. That’s about as far from London as Boston, Massachusetts in one direction, or Astana in central Kazakhstan in the other. In terms of their relations with the West, however, they are even further apart.

The Cote D’Ivoire, as it is also known, has emerged as a key Western ally in West Africa

While by no means perfect, the Cote D’Ivoire, as it is also known, has emerged as a key Western ally in West Africa. With a succession of military coups in nearby Mali, Niger, Chad, Burkina Faso, and Guinea, the Ivorians have remained stable, nearly 15 years after their own civil war. It’s not the Long Peace, perhaps, but in the region it counts for a lot.

President Ouattara has maintained stability and economic growth, and has been rewarded by major American military and diplomatic investment. There is even talk of American drone bases being built in the country. This would be particularly useful in the event of instability over international shipping lanes; the Gulf of Guinea, that long curve along Africa’s western coastline that runs from Nigeria’s coast down, has bucked the trend of piracy reduction, to the point that a huge number of kidnappings and drug smuggling takes place there. Western cooperation with players in the Gulf of Guinea would pay dividends back home.

More unusual by far than the pro-America posture is the stance that the Ivory Coast has maintained on both Ukraine and Israel. It has bucked the trend of African nations remaining neutral, or even showing tacit support, when it comes to Russia’s criminal invasion. And the country has signed an agreement with Israel to help combat the shared “threat of terrorism, especially the spread of Hezbollah, Iran’s terrorist arm” according to Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen.

The Ivorians have recognised Palestine as a state, but unlike many other African nations, this has not soured relations with the Jewish state; and with Britain, France, Australia, Canada and others adding their names to that list, recognition of Palestinian statehood no longer rules out — one sincerely hopes — a constructive relationship with Israel.

The Ivory Coast, then, is indicative of the sort of developing country we, the West, can hope to deal with in the 21st century: one that is aligned to the Pax Americana, is comfortable with Israel, and is clear eyed about revanchism from Russia and others.  This is exactly the kind of partnership that Western diplomatic policy should pursue, praise, and maintain, and develop in order to have influence in what is an increasingly powerful place in the world.

And then we have Eritrea. Under the one-party Leninist-Marxist Government of President Isaias Afwerki since its independence in 1993, Eritrea sides with Russia at the UN over Ukraine, and cosies up to China more lasciviously than a Jesus College Cambridge academic in search of funding. Afwerki is a devotee of Mao Zedong, and received military training in China back in the 1960s. He used this training to help Eritrea break away from Ethiopia in the early nineties.

China is Eritrea’s number one investor, trading partner and owns controlling stakes in all of Eritrea’s developed mining projects, according to the Hudson Institute. Alongside another China ally, neighbouring Djibouti, this alliance threatens the crucial Bab al Mandeb Strait, west of the Gulf of Aden that separates Africa from Yemen and the Arabian peninsula.

Should a major conflict between the US and China break out, and this Strait was impassable to Western vessels, the American Sixth Fleet would have to take the very long way around to reach the likely conflict theatre around Taiwan.

At home, Eritrea has one of the worst governments in the world when it comes to human rights abuses, and freedom of any kind. Particularly egregious is the open-ended conscription into the military, which in practice drives huge numbers of people into national construction projects and has understandably been likened to slavery. It is no wonder, then, that around a 1/10th of the population has fled abroad. 

This year, Eritreans made up the second highest number of arrivals to Britain’s shores after Afghanistan, including an early test case of the Government’s one in, one out policy. The awful form of modern slavery is, of course, unspeakably awful. But Britain cannot simply allow every Eritrean who makes it onto British soil to stay forever; this would be a pull for potentially millions more to come, and further inflame the immigration issues we face.

Eritrea, then, is emblematic of the other face of the developing world in the 21st century: a grim and inept quasi-Marxist administration, propped up by Chinese bondage money and held together with human rights abuses. Dealing with this is, clearly, a very difficult proposition for any foreign policy, especially when budgets are tight and domestic problems proliferate at home.

We should try what diplomatic levers we have, but being resolute in denying entry to these claimants, as Reform and the Conservatives have both done, is the most Britain can do. More broadly, the best hope for the Western-backed international system is for regional players like the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia to step into the breach once the old dictatorship falls, and vie with China for influence. 

This could be a glorious century for Africa, but each nation will have to decide between West and East

The Gulf states’ abilities to spur economic development is the best way to prevent the increasing numbers of Eritreans who are currently making the long journey to Europe and Britain, the last leg of which is via small boat. But where the West still has friends, it should cooperate and praise them, pour encourager les autres.

The Ivory Coast shows the way in how developing countries can benefit from working with the West; Eritrea shows the perils of both 20th and 21st Century Marxism. This could be a glorious century for Africa, but each nation will have to decide between West and East.